Why hasn't it happened.....yet?

[SimpleSimon]

Okay, kiddies, here's the scenario:

Terrorist group (of any stripe) figures out that if they can kill off a significant percentage (say 35% to 75%) of the world's population while protecting a significant proportion of their cadre and support network they can utilize the ensuing chaos to gain a dominant position in the region they are focused upon. If ecoterrorist, then the whole world.

Readily available materials and equipment, with a modicum of training, allows this to be done. It's called bioterrorism, and I personally know of at least 5 excellent target organisms, and with a minor investment of research effort could expand that list.

Total investment of time/treasure, for just one man with the proper training, 2-3 yrs and less than a million dollars. If one wants to refine the scenario, it gets a little more involved, but still is very doable. See "The White Plague" by Frank Herbert.

I tell you truly, if I so desired, I could within 3 years from this date release a plague with an infectious rate of 90%+, a latency period of 4-6 weeks, and a kill rate of 70%. Do the math - that's, conservatively estimated, 60% of all of humanity dead in 12 - 18 weeks. Actual kill rate would be considerably higher as the first wave of deaths resulted in pandemonium and the overwhelming of social services.

If the "terrorists" are so bent upon destruction, why hasn't this happened? I've known how for 25 years, and damn sure I am not one of the world's experts.

My question is, I believe, valid.

WHY HASN'T IT HAPPENED......YET?

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The arbiter of Change/ the Avatar of RA

[Mr. Snrub]

I hope there's a reason other than blind luck.

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[Back Tick]

Guilt?

Who would be left for them to rule?

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Just because some of us can read and write and do a little math, that doesn't mean we deserve to conquer the Universe.

[SimpleSimon]

<BLOCKQUOTE><HR>Originally posted by Mr. Snrub:
I hope there's a reason other than blind luck.

[/quote]

There is, I assure you. Now, given what we have learned in the last two generations of the nature and motivations of "terrorist" organizations, what is that reason? And please, no Mission Impossible or James Bond scenarios.

Ask yourself this: who (what organizations) has benefited most, in real world terms of power/money/prestige/organizational growth, from the rise of terrorism?

When you know the answer, then you will know who the real sponsors of terrorism are.

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The arbiter of Change/ the Avatar of RA

[TotalAnarchy]

Hold on. If you look at it that way, who gained the most from WW2? Or who gained the most from the black death?

Sometimes the people who gain the most do so through blind dumb luck. The law of unintended consiquences, or underestimation.



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<IMG SRC="http://a9.cpimg.com/image/63/E2/5744739-4aac-01DD006C-.jpg" border=0>
"Savagely circling
His sword on all sides
Strikes his foes
Crushes them down
Thus drops each man
On whom its blow falls"

[Uberwonder]

Perhaps the bad guys haven't read any Herbert yet.

BTW, how are you going to deliver this weapon?
With your "domesticated insectivore"?

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what?

[This message has been edited by Uberwonder (edited 12-02-2001).]

[SimpleSimon]

<BLOCKQUOTE><HR>Originally posted by Uberwonder:
Perhaps the bad guys haven't read any Herbert yet.

BTW, how are you going to deliver this weapon?
With your "domesticated insectivore"?

[/quote]

No, skunks aren't up to it. Easiest way for the specific organism I have in mind is by aerosol release in major international airports. And no, it does not require access to the HVAC system. A slightly modified briefcase will do.

Depending upon the chosen organism, the delivery system(s) are child's play.

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The arbiter of Change/ the Avatar of RA

[TotalAnarchy]

yeah, I know, all you have to do is go to the library and there you go - Modern Biological Agents and You - how to engineer, genetically modify and make it usable in three easy steps.

Right.

Because last time I checked just about any disease that you could get with a mortality rate that bad, would be not aerosol in form. Unless you know about some fatal airbore form of Ebola, or perhaps the bubonic plague in airborne form? Yeah, I have those, along with smallpox, sitting in my back toolshed. Dont you?

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<IMG SRC="http://a9.cpimg.com/image/63/E2/5744739-4aac-01DD006C-.jpg" border=0>
"Savagely circling
His sword on all sides
Strikes his foes
Crushes them down
Thus drops each man
On whom its blow falls"

[SimpleSimon]

<BLOCKQUOTE><HR>Originally posted by TotalAnarchy:
Hold on. If you look at it that way, who gained the most from WW2? Or who gained the most from the black death?[B][/quote]

WW2? The Japanese, and Western Europe, by any objective standard. The black plague - which time?

<BLOCKQUOTE><HR>[B]Sometimes the people who gain the most do so through blind dumb luck. The law of unintended consiquences, or underestimation.
[/quote]

Quite true. Yet here we are talking about the systematic refinement of technique and the progressive escalation of target levels and sophistication. From organizations with putatively seperate agendas and often diametrically opposed goals. You don't wonder about that?

C'mon, TA, I know you are smarter than that.

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The arbiter of Change/ the Avatar of RA

[Uberwonder]

<BLOCKQUOTE><HR>Originally posted by SimpleSimon:
<BLOCKQUOTE><HR>Originally posted by Uberwonder:
Perhaps the bad guys haven't read any Herbert yet.

BTW, how are you going to deliver this weapon?
With your "domesticated insectivore"?

[/quote]

No, skunks aren't up to it. Easiest way for the specific organism I have in mind is by aerosol release in major international airports. And no, it does not require access to the HVAC system. A slightly modified briefcase will do.

Depending upon the chosen organism, the delivery system(s) are child's play.

[/quote]

Uh huh
You aren't even making decent sci fi here.
And just so you know, a skunk is not a "domesticated insectivore".



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what?

[SimpleSimon]

Perhaps you have not bothered to domesticate one yet? Not an obligate insectivore, insects make up a very large part of their diet.

Sci fi? Perhaps, but not intended as such. Within 25 miles of where I sit are 18 labs (that I know of) containing stocks of one or more of the organisms I have in mind. Will I name those organisms? No, I don't think so. If you want to develop your own llist it is a simple exercise in research at any good university library.

Are they hard to get? Not really, one of them being found in untreated redwood from northern california.

As for the technique and skills - the universities of this nation produce thousands of graduates yearly with the requisite education in microbiology and biotechnology.

Are materials for the necessary lab work hard to come by? Hardly - anyone can buy them quite readily. I know of one kit designed to give an intro to recombinant DNA technique now being marketed to high schools.

The point here is not is it possible, but why has it not happened yet?

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The arbiter of Change/ the Avatar of RA

[Uberwonder]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by SimpleSimon:
[B]Perhaps you have not bothered to domesticate one yet?
<font color = yellow>Care to discuss the Mustela family in detail? I would be happy to. The fact that you have a skunk does not mean you have domesticated it. You simply have a wild animal in captivity.
I have owned more captive skunks than you have ever seen. These animals are not "domesticated" any more than they are insectivores, they are omnivorous animals that are occasionally kept captive. Your obvious ignorance as to the true nature of the animal is evident.</font>

Not an obligate insectivore, insects make up a very large part of their diet.
<font color = yellow>Obligate? Puhlease... You are trying so hard to impress people with your big (albeit incorrect) wordage. They are omnivorous. You live up to your nic quite well.</font>

Sci fi? Perhaps, but not intended as such. Within 25 miles of where I sit are 18 labs (that I know of) containing stocks of one or more of the organisms I have in mind. Will I name those organisms? No, I don't think so. If you want to develop your own llist it is a simple exercise in research at any good university library.

Are they hard to get? Not really, one of them being found in untreated redwood from northern california.

As for the technique and skills - the universities of this nation produce thousands of graduates yearly with the requisite education in microbiology and biotechnology.

Are materials for the necessary lab work hard to come by? Hardly - anyone can buy them quite readily. I know of one kit designed to give an intro to recombinant DNA technique now being marketed to high schools.

The point here is not is it possible, but why has it not happened yet?
<font color = yellow>So play the devil's advocate and see it you can figure out why no one has tried it yet.</font>




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what?

[Koliedrus]

Ooo Ooo! I think I know the answer!

*waves his hand enthusiastically in the air*

The evil people either can't read or they just haven't gotten around to renewing their subscription to Scientific American (http://www.sciam.com/2001/1201issue/1201scicit1.html) .

While I'm at it, I need a hall pass.

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May fortune favor the foolish.

[RiZZ]

sign me up

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[SatansLeftHand]

<IMG SRC="http://www.photoloft.com/view/exportImage.asp?s=jasc&i=8490549&w=434&h=200" border=0>
now go hide under your bed

[This message has been edited by SatansLeftHand (edited 12-03-2001).]

[SimpleSimon]

Uberwonder - If I were interested in a flame war I'd have posted in the coloseum. As for skunks, most of what I know of them is from raising 2, and from some reading. I defer to your "expert" opinion, since you obviously know more about them than I. Perhaps we might discuss them in another thread.

As for the use of the word "obligate"; I used in the commonly accepted form found in scientific writings - I have no need for gratuitous denigration, and pity your insecurities.

"Devil's advocate" - perhaps you should read the entire thread and try to figure out where this is intended to lead - as for myself, I have no need for obviousness.

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The arbiter of Change/ the Avatar of RA

[Uberwonder]

"Gratuitous denigration"... OK, I like that one.

Save your pity though, I have no insecurities.
You can feel sorry for Mudflap, he needs it.

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what?

[Mudflap]

<FONT COLOR="Orange">Another interesting thread ruined for me with another shot from the dark.

I understand when I bring it on myself, but DAMN! I hadn't even posted in this thread!

Hey Wonder...since you're so nit-picky about the semantics of domestication, could you please enlighten us as to what exactly constitutes true domestication? I haven't researched the issue, but I used to have a friend with a pet skunk that was quite social and friendly. That's the skunk I'm talking about there. What are the prerequisites for true domestication of a critter?

Sorry to veer off topic Simon, but I'm sure Wonder can sufficiently answer my question (and no doubt insult me) in one more post.</FONT c>

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Let's do this thing! (http://www.thehypertribe.net/ubb/Forum1/HTML/002257.html)

[Back Tick]

my apologies as well for going off topic, but god damn Uberwonder, where the hell did that come from?

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Just because some of us can read and write and do a little math, that doesn't mean we deserve to conquer the Universe.

[Uberwonder]

Gaddamit!! What the fuck is it with you two and your off topic posts?

Christ on a stick, Mud, if you want to know about why skunks are cconsidered exotic as opposed to domestic, start a fucking new thread. You are so insecure.

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what?

[Mudflap]

http://www.thehypertribe.net/ubb/biggrin.gif

<FONT COLOR="Orange">Q&A Forum you big sexy bitch!</FONT c>

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[3MTA3]

OH NO THE KNOWLEDGE WE TEACH OUR HIGH SCHOOLERS WILL KILL US ALL!! RUN!!

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